Is peak oil a thing... This is like asking is Gravity a thing...
Of course it's a thing. We use a lot of friking oil.
The earth is a finite source of oil.
It takes millions of years for oil to be created.
A two year old could tell you that we are eventually going to run out of oil. The real question should be when, and what happens when we do.
If you think about it, everything you consume and use daily uses oil. Even if you're a student, how did you get to class? Whats your laptop, notebook, pen, pencil, phone, even your textbook made of? How was the building you live in constructed? Oil, Oil, Oil. We get power from it, we use it mine and deforest, then we use it to transport, and finally to create all the crap we think we need. Not to mention everywhere in between.
So what happens if we run out? I have no idea. Would the world end? I think not, but it certainly wouldn't look the same. Every plastic would need to be recycled, we would run out of almost all of our synthetic organic compounds from toothpaste to the rubber in our tires. Finding a versatile compound to replace oil would be tough in itself, but we would need to also find one that we can exploit at the same level as we did with oil. Personally, I doubt we'll find this mystical replacement.
So how about recycling everything? Reduce, reuse, recycle, fixes everything right? Ha, no. Many oil based products require insane amounts of energy to be recycled, its not economically viable for companies to start trying to recycle all of the oil based products that we have. Not to mention that reducing and reusing products will make our consumption-based economy go down the drain.
The solution we should all be working too is not IF peak oil is a "thing" or when it is coming. The solution we need to be working towards is becoming less oil dependent so that when peak oil comes, we are ready for it. There is no harm in reducing the millions of tons of pollutants we put in the air, or by innovating new technologies and switching our dependency to renewable energy sources. We need to open our eyes and look towards the future, instead of the profit margins of today.
Why you appear to imply that peak oil is the same as running out? Quite a few peak oilers (and certainly those who know that the socio-economic consequences cheered by its advocates is mostly a crock) become unhappy when that implication is made. Peak oil itself is an artifact of the "running outers" like Jimmy Carter having blown their credibility on the topic, and folks needing a way to trigger oil fear in folks without needing the entire supply of oil ti vanish. Just half of it vanishing was deemed to be good enough to scare the hell out of everyone.
ReplyDeleteSo peak oil was declared!! In 1989 by Colin Campbell. Do you think it was any more real then, than in 2000 or so when Savinar and Ruppert proclaimed it to be true? 2005 when Matt Simmons said it was true? 2006 when the Chief Economist of the IEA proclaimed it? 2008 when The Oil Drum picked the year?
Sure peak oil is real. All the times it happened before, probably all the times it will happen in the future. The issue isn't whether or not peak oil is real, but it if has any significance whatsoever. In the past, now, or in the future.
I think you missed the point of the blog, the question wasn't if or when or even what. Oil is finite, and the question is what happens when we run out of economically viable oil sources?
DeleteNo one disagrees that oil is finite. And we won't be running out of some amount of economically recoverable oil in your lifetime, so we are really speculating about what happens in this world after your demise, if those are the conditions of your question.
DeleteMay I ask why an event that won't occur until after you are dead and gone so interests you?
Interesting... The real question is also how will we know when it happens... probably not with the prices of oil (because of the way the oil markets work)... So it could an abrupt fall...
ReplyDelete"Of course it's a thing. We use a lot of fricking oil."
ReplyDeleteBut for some reason, the majority of men appear to believe, without even a superficial knowledge of the data, that there is plenty of oil. Plenty - no need to worry. The only issues are getting environmentalists to let us drill for it where it is, and Arab Shieks to sell it to us at a "fair price".
And those of us men capable of defining what "plenty" means, where it is, and what it might cost? What are we, chopped meat!! :)
DeleteDepends on how one defines "plenty", right? I recommend purchasing the IHS EDIN database, adding up all the inplace volumes for all oil fields, and determining the cost of supply for that amount of oil. Simple. I did it last week, excluding the US and Canada, just for fun. Is there any reason that someone can imagine that the peak oilers themselves don't do this? And then we can talk about how much "plenty" is...or is not.
ReplyDelete